| Inner City Press Asked IMF
of Indonesia and Thailand Fund Answers Here on
COVID
By Matthew
Russell Lee, Patreon Video
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SDNY COURTHOUSE,
Oct 21 – When the
International Monetary Fund
addressed Asia and the Pacific
on October 20, Inner City
Press attended and posed a
number of questions. Now on
October 21, here are two IMF
answers:
Inner City Press
Q: On Thailand, new BoT Gov.
Sethaput Suthiwartnarueput
said the country's economy
faces severe shocks from the
pandemic, with a recovery
expected to take at least two
years. What is the IMF's
view?
Answer from IMF
Thailand team: Thailand’s
economy has been extensively
affected by the Covid 19
pandemic through its impact on
tourism and global value
chains. The IMF’s October 2020
WEO projected a GDP
contraction of about 7 percent
this year followed by a 4
percent recovery in 2021. The
recovery is expected to be
gradual given the continued
challenges for the tourism
sector and highly uncertain
path of the pandemic. Staff
supports the authorities’
multi-pronged package of
monetary, fiscal and financial
policies to manage risks from
the pandemic outbreak and to
safeguard financial stability.
Inner City Press
Q: What is the IMF's response
to that Indonesia Investments'
MD van der Schaar says the IMF
expects to see a rebound for
Indonesia in 2021, back above
5% (y/y). "My problem is that
these optimistic outlooks are
based on the availability of a
COVID-19 vaccine in early
2021. However, based on what I
read, it takes years to
develop a safe and effective
vaccine."
Answer from the
IMF Indonesia team: Our growth
forecasts are not predicated
on the assumption that a
vaccine will be available in
early 2021. They are based on
the assumption that the
pandemic situation will
gradually improve and that the
economic reopening continues.
More economic sectors will
recover further and operate at
greater capacity as a result.
Together with an improving
external environment, the
further reopening will result
in a rebound in economic
activity. In addition, a
technical factor is an
important reason why annual
growth in 2021 is forecast to
be somewhat higher than the
growth around 5 percent seen
in recent years. The technical
factor, or base effect,
reflects the contraction in
real GDP in the first half of
2020.
Inner City
Press has also asked, "On Sri
Lanka, what is the IMF's view
on news that Sri Lanka intends
to turn to China for a loan
and the analysis thatthst
confirms China 'as lender of
the last resort to the
strategically located South
Asian island nation(s)'?"
When the IMF
addressed sub Saharan Africa
on October 21, Inner City
Press posed questions on
Cameroon and on Cote d'Ivoire.
Inner City Press
asked the IMF's Abebe Aemro
Selassie, Director, African
Department: "On Cameroon, in
light of the October 21
announcement of additional
COVID-related aid, what
safeguards are in place to
engage a lack of corruption in
distribution, and to prevent
the torture which many human
rights groups allege?"
His answer
involved assurances that the
beneficial owners of companies
getting government contracts,
for COVID and otherwise,
should be made public. Video here.
Inner City
Press also asked about Cote
d'Ivoire, where IMF alumni
Ouattara is running for a
third term. The answer was
largely praising Cote d'Ivoire
economic diversity. Here's
the transcript.
Earlier in
the week, Inner City Press
asked the IMF: "What is the
IMF's assessment of the
turmoil in Kyrgyz Republic?
Can or will the IMF to do
anything to assist, including
on continued COVID-19 response
as well as debt to China /
Eximbank?"
His answer,
interim video here,
recounted the IMF's
pre-turmoil assistance to
Kyrgyzstan. here.
Inner City
Press also asked, "On Yemen,
what is the status of the use
of the new riyal banknotes
printed by the Central Bank in
Yemen, and any actions taken
by the IMF?" and, when called
on by video for a follow-up,
about the Nagorno Karabakh
conflict between Azerbaijan
and Armenia. Video on
YouTube here.
On the
latter, Jihad Azour cited the
IMF's Technical Assistant center
set for Almaty, Kazakhstan
and said the IMF joins in
calls for a ceasefire (which
have been mouthed by but not
followed up on by the
UNresponsive UN). We'll have
more on this.
***
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