IMF Speaks on Iraq Budget
Approval After Inner City Press Asked Of
Corruption
By Matthew
Russell Lee, Patreon Video
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SDNY COURTHOUSE,
Dec 24 – When the
International Monetary Fund
held its embargoed media
briefing on December 3, Inner
City Press posed questions
including on Kenya and
Mozambique, which got
answered.
IMF
Spokesperson Gerry Rice read
out two of Inner City Press'
questions, see below.
Now on
December 24 on Iraq the IMF
has this, from Tokhir Mirzoev,
Mission Chief for Iraq:
“The COVID-19 pandemic and the
sharp decline in oil prices
and output have aggravated
Iraq's economic
vulnerabilities. Severe fiscal
financing constraints and
challenges with meeting
external and domestic payment
obligations, including wages
and pensions, necessitate a
decisive recalibration of
economic policies to maintain
economic stability. “In
this context, we welcome the
Iraqi Council of Ministers’
approval of the draft 2021
budget, which, we understand,
envisages important fiscal
reforms. While difficult,
these reforms, combined with
the recently announced
devaluation of the exchange
rate, are critically important
steps to help reduce Iraq’s
large external and fiscal
imbalances and ensure the
country’s economic stability.
The authorities’ plans to
significantly increase
targeted cash transfers to the
poor as well as to enhance the
health-related spending will
be essential to mitigate the
impact of the COVID crisis on
the most vulnerable.
“While providing relief from
immediate financial tensions,
the authorities’ short-term
plan will need to be followed
up with further reforms,
including deeper structural
reforms, to strengthen
economic resilience, create
further fiscal space for
critical reconstruction and
social spending, and lay the
ground for higher, job-rich
and more inclusive medium-term
growth. The IMF stands ready
to support the authorities’
reform efforts at this
challenging juncture.” We'll
have more on this.
IMF's Rice on December 3: "On
Kenya, the finance ministry
says it is discussing a $2.3
billion lending program with
the IMF, including an initial
disbursement of $725 million
from IMF in the first half of
2021. What is the status of
talks and what is the IMF's
view of the Standard Gauge
Railway from Mombasa to
Nairobi has a budget of a full
Sh 327 billion, which some say
indicates that the budget for
this project was padded?"
Rice said
discussion are underway and it
should go to the IMF Board in
early 2021. He referred to an
earlier IMF report on the
railway - more on that in transcript,
and video here.
Rice also
read out this, from Inner City
Press: "On Mozambique, what is
the impact on the IMF's
approach of the decision by
the EU on €100 million in
direct support to the State
Budget, with “monitoring and
transparency” clauses? Does
the IMF include similar
clauses, in Mozambique and
elsewhere?"
Rice said
yes, such clauses were
included in the IMF's
disbursement to Mozambique in
April. Again, transcript here,
video here.
When the
IMF addressed Asia and
the Pacific on October 20,
Inner City Press attended and
posed a number of questions.
Now on October 21, here are
two IMF answers:
Inner City Press
Q: On Thailand, new BoT Gov.
Sethaput Suthiwartnarueput
said the country's economy
faces severe shocks from the
pandemic, with a recovery
expected to take at least two
years. What is the IMF's
view?
Answer from IMF
Thailand team: Thailand’s
economy has been extensively
affected by the Covid 19
pandemic through its impact on
tourism and global value
chains. The IMF’s October 2020
WEO projected a GDP
contraction of about 7 percent
this year followed by a 4
percent recovery in 2021. The
recovery is expected to be
gradual given the continued
challenges for the tourism
sector and highly uncertain
path of the pandemic. Staff
supports the authorities’
multi-pronged package of
monetary, fiscal and financial
policies to manage risks from
the pandemic outbreak and to
safeguard financial stability.
Inner City Press
Q: What is the IMF's response
to that Indonesia Investments'
MD van der Schaar says the IMF
expects to see a rebound for
Indonesia in 2021, back above
5% (y/y). "My problem is that
these optimistic outlooks are
based on the availability of a
COVID-19 vaccine in early
2021. However, based on what I
read, it takes years to
develop a safe and effective
vaccine."
Answer from the
IMF Indonesia team: Our growth
forecasts are not predicated
on the assumption that a
vaccine will be available in
early 2021. They are based on
the assumption that the
pandemic situation will
gradually improve and that the
economic reopening continues.
More economic sectors will
recover further and operate at
greater capacity as a result.
Together with an improving
external environment, the
further reopening will result
in a rebound in economic
activity. In addition, a
technical factor is an
important reason why annual
growth in 2021 is forecast to
be somewhat higher than the
growth around 5 percent seen
in recent years. The technical
factor, or base effect,
reflects the contraction in
real GDP in the first half of
2020.
Inner City
Press has also asked, "On Sri
Lanka, what is the IMF's view
on news that Sri Lanka intends
to turn to China for a loan
and the analysis thatthst
confirms China 'as lender of
the last resort to the
strategically located South
Asian island nation(s)'?"
When the IMF
addressed sub Saharan Africa
on October 21, Inner City
Press posed questions on
Cameroon and on Cote d'Ivoire.
Inner City Press
asked the IMF's Abebe Aemro
Selassie, Director, African
Department: "On Cameroon, in
light of the October 21
announcement of additional
COVID-related aid, what
safeguards are in place to
engage a lack of corruption in
distribution, and to prevent
the torture which many human
rights groups allege?"
His answer
involved assurances that the
beneficial owners of companies
getting government contracts,
for COVID and otherwise,
should be made public. Video here.
Inner City
Press also asked about Cote
d'Ivoire, where IMF alumni
Ouattara is running for a
third term. The answer was
largely praising Cote d'Ivoire
economic diversity. Here's
the transcript.
Earlier in
the week, Inner City Press
asked the IMF: "What is the
IMF's assessment of the
turmoil in Kyrgyz Republic?
Can or will the IMF to do
anything to assist, including
on continued COVID-19 response
as well as debt to China /
Eximbank?"
His answer,
interim video here,
recounted the IMF's
pre-turmoil assistance to
Kyrgyzstan. here.
Inner City
Press also asked, "On Yemen,
what is the status of the use
of the new riyal banknotes
printed by the Central Bank in
Yemen, and any actions taken
by the IMF?" and, when called
on by video for a follow-up,
about the Nagorno Karabakh
conflict between Azerbaijan
and Armenia. Video on
YouTube here.
On the
latter, Jihad Azour cited the
IMF's Technical Assistant center
set for Almaty, Kazakhstan
and said the IMF joins in
calls for a ceasefire (which
have been mouthed by but not
followed up on by the
UNresponsive UN). We'll have
more on this.
***
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