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By Matthew Russell Lee, CJR PFT NY Post

NEW YORK CITY, March 7– When the International Monetary Fund held its biweekly embargoed media briefing on March 7, Inner City Press submitted five questions including on Haiti which the IMF answered. Now on March 8, the IMF has issued this about Jamaica: "An International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff team led by Ms. Uma Ramakrishnan visited Kingston from February 25–March 8, 2019, to conduct discussions on the fifth review of Jamaica’s financial and economic program supported by the IMF’s precautionary Stand-By Arrangement (SBA).  At the end of the visit, Ms. Ramakrishnan issued the following statement:  “The IMF team reached a preliminary agreement with the Jamaican authorities on a set of policies that aims to complete the fifth review under the SBA. Consideration by the IMF’s Executive Board is tentatively scheduled for April 2019. Upon approval, an additional SDR 160.8 million (about US$224 million) will be made available for Jamaica, bringing the total accessible credit to about US$1.4 billion. The Jamaican authorities continue to view the SBA as precautionary.  “Strong implementation of the reform program continues, with the sustained commitment yielding tangible dividends for the people of Jamaica. Unemployment is near all-time lows, business confidence is high, and the economy is estimated to have expanded by 1.8 percent in 2018, buoyed by mining, construction and agriculture. International reserves are estimated to be comfortable under a more flexible exchange rate. All quantitative performance criteria at end-December 2018 were met, and the structural benchmark to table in Parliament amendments to the Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) Act was completed in October 2018. Inflation, however, was 2.4 percent in December 2018, triggering staff consultation under the Monetary Policy Consultation Clause.  “With improving public debt dynamics, staff supports the reduction in the primary surplus target by ½ percent of GDP to 6½ percent in the budget for FY19/20 to further boost growth and job creation. The additional space accommodates much-needed growth-enhancing and social spending for citizen security, PATH, and rural infrastructure. Staff also welcomes the reductions of the distortionary financial turnover taxes (stamp duty, transfer tax, and minimum business tax, as well as a higher GCT threshold) within the budget envelope. These tax cuts are feasible because of the expanded tax base that has been achieved through commendable efforts in both tax policy and revenue administration. Overall, these budget measures are expected to lower the cost of doing business, reduce informality and increase economic activity.  “Looking ahead, accelerating public sector reforms, including a new compensation framework that rewards performance and the rationalization of the numbers of public bodies by prioritizing government functions, will improve public service delivery. This will further reduce the wage bill and release resources for social and growth-enhancing outlays.  “Swiftly and forcefully addressing the shortcomings in the governance of public bodies—including those identified in the Auditor General’s report on Petrojam—is critical to enhance transparency and accountability, reduce the scope for corruption, bolster trust in public institutions, and protect public funds.  “The team welcomes the government’s proactive steps to strengthen domestic policy institutions in preparation for exit from Fund financial support later this year. The planned fiscal council, policy framework for natural disaster risks financing, macro-fiscal capacity building at the Ministry of Finance and the Public Service, and enshrining central bank operational independence constitute key pillars.  “We also applaud the BOJ’s innovative public engagement on the importance of stable and predictable inflation. Further monetary loosening is warranted to restore inflation to the target range of 4–6 percent, including improving monetary transmission, while monitoring developments in oil prices, global financial conditions, and domestic factors. Maintaining a market-determined exchange rate with BOJ’s FX sales limited to episodes of disorderly market conditions is necessary for the shift to full-fledged inflation targeting.  “Building on the recent FSAP recommendations, the authorities are working towards strengthening the financial sector’s oversight capacity, risk-based and consolidated supervision, implementing measures to further develop the FX and debt markets, and improving access to finance for businesses and households.  “During the visit, the IMF team met with Prime Minister Andrew Holness, Minister of Finance and the Public Service Dr. Nigel Clarke, Minister of Energy, Science and Technology Fayval Williams, Bank of Jamaica Governor Brian Wynter, Financial Secretary Darlene Morrison, Planning Institute Director General Dr. Wayne Henry, senior government officials, as well as members of the private sector, labor unions, and the Opposition." We'll have more on this. Here's the IMF transcript: "There is question on Haiti coming from Matthew Lee in New York. I'll take a couple of Matthew's questions as usual. And Matthew is asking about any updates I can give him on Haiti. And I can say that an IMF team is in Port Au-Prince as we speak to complete the Article IV consultation. But more than that, to discuss a possible IMF financial arrangement with Haiti. And we will hear more on that very, very soon.  But I can say that the mission will propose that what the mission will propose is highly concessional, on the most concessional terms we can offer for Haiti and it will highlight social protection. It will highlight the fight against corruption while deferring any fuel price adjustments until the government is able to guarantee that the most vulnerable will be protected from any negative effects.  Those of you who follow Haiti, you know, will understand the context of what I have just said. And again, the mission will communicate its findings at the end of the visit." Now, 11 hours later, the IMF announces this: "In response to a request from the Haitian authorities, an International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission led by Mr. Chris Walker visited Port-au-Prince from February 25 to March 8, 2019 to discuss IMF support for measures to ease poverty, encourage good governance, raise growth and stabilize the country’s economic situation. At the end of the visit, Mr. Walker issued the following statement:  “I am pleased to announce that in support of the government and the people of Haiti, we, the IMF, the Haitian government and the Central Bank of Haiti (Banque de la République d’Haiti (BRH)) have reached an IMF staff-level agreement on a concessional 0 percent, three-year loan of US$ 229 million for Haiti. This agreement will have to be approved by the IMF’s Executive Board, which is expected to consider Haiti’s request in the coming weeks.  “The agreement we have reached is aimed at helping Haiti overcome its current fragile state, and alleviating the hardship of the most vulnerable. We have placed social protection firmly at the center of the accord, and once the agreed measures are successfully implemented, the poorest in Haiti will be among the first to benefit in a tangible way.  The program provides money for a variety of social protection measures ranging from school feeding, through targeted cash transfers, to money for social housing.  “Priority has also been given to the fight against corruption and improvements in governance.  The IMF backs the government’s aim of state reform.  In its agreement, it has drawn up measurable targets to boost this fight with the goal of injecting greater transparency into the management of public finances, tax and revenue administration, as well as expenditure control.  “To enable Haiti to return to macroeconomic stability, the loan to Haiti represents 100 percent of quota, and the money will be disbursed over the three years of the program which is subject to regular Executive Board and staff reviews.  “The loan is offered under the IMF’s Extended Credit Facility (ECF) which allows lending at concessional rates and is aimed at stabilizing Haiti’s economy by putting its budget deficit on a downward trajectory and managing its debt, while protecting the poorest in the country.  “The visit also encompassed the IMF’s Article IV consultation, or its regular check of the health of the country’s economy.  Real growth remains near its four-year average of 1.5 percent.  The country has been facing severe financing constraints while political turbulence has discouraged private investment and limited action on needed fiscal reform.   “Under the program, we expect that financial constraints will be relaxed, allowing for faster growth.   “We at the IMF are ready to partner with Haiti on its economic revitalization. We will also encourage other multilateral agencies and countries to support the country. We have talked to partner agencies and they are willing to help. It would also be very helpful for Haiti’s bilateral partners to step forward at this critical time.  “The mission would like to thank the authorities and all those with whom they met for their warm welcome and the frank and constructive discussions.'"  We'll have more on this - and this: on March 7 Rice said he was not aware of any IMF contact with Team Guaido on Venezuela... On February 7 Inner City Press asked, "On Barbados, former co-chair of Jamaica’s EPOC Richard Byles has said the circumstances which forced Jamaica to turn to the IMF were very similar to those currently faced by Barbados with very high debt to GDP ratios and low foreign reserves. Any IMF comment? Has Barbados reached out to the IMF?" Rice responded about the EFF program initiated last October - here's from the transcript: "There is one other -- a couple of other questions on line I'll take. One is on Barbados where, again, Matthew Lee is asking the former co-chair of Jamaica's EPOC, Richard Byles, has said the circumstances which forced Jamaica to turn to the IMF were very similar to those currently faced by Barbados, very high debt levels, low foreign reserve. Any IMF comment, has Barbados reached out to the IMF, the answer is clearly yes because last October our Board approved a program, a financial program for Barbados under our extended fund facility, one of those instruments that we can use when countries are in difficulty. So just confirming that." And on Zimbabwe: "Then let me take a few calls from this -- there is one on Zimbabwe asking about -- what is our comment on reports that Zimbabwe has cleared its arrears with the IMF but the country still owes, he says 687 million to the African Development Bank, 1.4 billion to the World Bank, 322 million to the European investment bank and on recent developments including the crackdowns in the country.  We have talked quite a bit about Zimbabwe here in the past but just to answer the question, it’s -- I can confirm that -- and I’ve said it before here, that Zimbabwe has cleared, indeed, its arrears to the IMF but arrears remain outstanding to other multilateral creditors, including the World Bank and that severely limits Zimbabwe’s access to international financial support -- Zimbabwe has no arrears to the IMF. Our rules preclude lending given the arrears to other financial institutions.  And on the crackdown he asks about, I don't have too much to add beyond what I said here before, which is that we encourage all stakeholders to collaborate peacefully -- and I think that's the word I would want to stress, is the "peacefully" -- and, you know, try to develop policies that will stabilize the economy and promote sustainable and inclusive growth. It's clearly a very difficult situation there in Zimbabwe and we recognize that." Inner City Press also asked, "On Nigeria, Minister of Budget and National Planning, Senator Udo Udoma, has said the nation’s economy will grow by 3.01 per cent this year, compared to a forecast of two per cent by the International Monetary Fund. What is the IMF's response?  What is the IMF's comment on the making public of US “Field Manual (FM) 3-05.130, Army Special Operations Forces Unconventional Warfare” and its mentions of the IMF? On Cameroon, now the US is cutting military aid due to human rights violations (and a Cameroon minister threatening opponents with a Holocaust). Do these issues, and the continued crackdown in the Southwest and Northwest of the country, have no impact the IMF's continued programs with the Biya government?" Somehow these Cameroon questions don't get answered. We'll have more on this. On Venezuela Rice made it clear that IMF has not spoken with Guaido, saying the IMF will take its guidance from the international community and stating of the IMF, "we don't do politics, we do economics." We'll have more on this.  Back from the IMF's January 17 transcript answering Inner City Press' Zimbabwe question at the time. RICE: "I'll take one more online and that's about Zimbabwe and asking for the status of where we are with the countries debt and relation with the IMF and did we have any comment on the unrest and the government crackdown there is the question.  So in answer to that, I would say that of course Zimbabwe is facing major challenges and just in terms of the unrest, we encourage all stakeholders to collaborate peacefully in developing and implementing policies that will stabilize the economy and promote sustainable and inclusive growth.  On the overall economic situation, debt and the IMF, there has been no real change in what I have said here recently which is Zimbabwe continues to be in a difficult situation regarding debt with protracted arrears to official creditors including multilateral creditors such as the World Bank which severely limits Zimbabwe's access to international financial support.  In terms of the IMF, Zimbabwe has in fact cleared its arrears to us, to the Fund, but our rules preclude lending to a country that is still in or under arrears to other international financial situations. So until that particular situation is resolved, we would not be moving forward with a financial support for Zimbabwe.  I said here the last time that the authority's economic policies we felt were headed in the right direction broadly in terms of addressing the fiscal deficit and monetary policy and so on. I won't repeat what I said the last time but that’s where we are on Zimbabwe."

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