On
Lebanon, IMF
Talks Up Oil,
Money-Laundering
&
Resolution in
Syria
By
Matthew
Russell Lee
UNITED
NATIONS, July
31 -- In the
International
Monetary
Fund's just
release
Lebanon report
the word Syria
appears no
less than 59
times, blamed
for nearly
everything.
But the report
at page 6
acknowledges:
“Lebanon
could
not create
sufficient
jobs even
before the
Syria crisis.
According to
the World
Bank, only
some 3,800
jobs were
generated per
year (one for
every six new
entrants to
the labor
market) in
2005–09.
Reflecting
insufficient
job
opportunities,
the
unemployment
rate
stood at 11
percent in
2011, slightly
above the MENA
average of 10
percent. Like
in the MENA
region,
unemployment
was much
higher among
the youth --
over one third
of labor force
participants
aged 15 - 24
are
unemployed.
Around half of
the labor
force was
employed in
the
informal
sector.”
The
IMF opines,
“Without a
resolution in
Syria,
economic
performance is
expected to
remain weak.”
But what kind
of resolution?
As
good news, the
IMF says
“Lebanon
might
become a
commodity
producer over
the next
decade, with
petroleum set
to be an
important
source of
government
revenue.
Recent
seismic
surveys
suggest that
Lebanon’s oil
and gas
resources
could
be in excess
of 25 trillion
cubic feet
(tcf). While
not
particularly
large by
international
standards,
this estimate
still points
to the
potential for
a substantial
revenue
increase for
many years
(though
not starting
before 2020 at
the
earliest).”
For
now, on
delinquent
loans held by
Lebanese
banks, the IMF
“staff
called for an
improvement of
loan
classification
and
restructuring
rules. The
increase in
loans under
watch and the
widespread use
of
overdrafts
warrant
tighter rules
guiding the
classification
of NPLs
and the
restructuring
of loans,
including
re-aging of
overdrafts and
arrears”
(Yesterday
Inner City
Press reported
on Cyprus
non-performing
loans and the
foreclosure
scheme the IMF
is demanding,
here.)
Also
on Lebanese
banks, the IMF
“encouraged
progress on
the Anti-Money
Laundering and
Combating the
Financing of
Terrorism
(AML/CFT)
regime.
A better
understanding
of the source
of deposits
and adequate
identification
of beneficial
owners would
allow more
effective
monitoring of
transactions
and
strengthening
of risk-based
supervision—necessary
to enhance the
integrity of
the financial
sector.”
The
IMF report
contains as an
annex a
“Statement by
Mr. Shaalan on
behalf of the
Lebanese
authorities”
-- of whom
while there
the IMF
met with Prime
Minister
Salam,
Minister of
Finance
Khalil,
Governor
of the Banque
du Liban (BdL)
Salame -- the
IMF met with
that says
“Lebanon’s
AML/CFT regime
is in practice
fully
compliant with
international
standards, and
Lebanon’s
financial
intelligence
unit,
the Special
Investigation
Commission,
actively
cooperates
with its
foreign
counterparts.”
We'll see.
Watch this
site.
, 
