In Other Media-eg New Statesman, AJE, FP, Georgia, NYT,  Azerbaijan, CSM Click here to contact us     .

By Matthew Russell Lee, CJR PFT NY Post

NEW YORK CITY, Oct 8 – When the International Monetary Fund held its biweekly embargoed media briefing on September 26, Inner City Press submitted questions including on Turkey and Sri Lanka, see below.

 Now on October 8 on Nigeria from the IMF, this: "An International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff team led by Amine Mati, Senior Resident Representative and Mission Chief for Nigeria, visited Lagos and Abuja from September 25 to October 7, 2019 to discuss recent economic and financial developments, update macroeconomic projections, and review reform implementation. At the end of the visit, Mr. Mati issued the following statement:  “The pace of economic recovery remains slow, as depressed private consumption and investors’ wait-and-see attitude kept growth in the first half of the year at 2 percent, a rate significantly below population growth. Headline inflation has fallen, reaching its lowest level since January 2016, helped by lower food price inflation.  “Spurred by one-off increases in imports, the current account turned into a deficit in the first half of 2019 after three years of surpluses. Gross international reserves have fallen to below $42 billion at end-August 2019, mainly reflecting a decline in foreign holdings of short-term securities and equity. The exchange rate in various windows remained stable, helped by steady sales of foreign exchange by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).  “Carryover from 2018 to 2019 helped increase public investment spending in the first half of 2019, but revenue underperformed significantly relative to the budget target in the first half of 2019. Managing vulnerabilities arising from large amounts of maturing CBN bills—including those held by non-residents—requires stopping direct central bank interventions, the introduction of longer-term government instruments to mop up excess liquidity and moving towards a uniform market-determined exchange rate.  “Banking sector prudential ratios are improving. However, new regulations to spur lending—which has recently increased—should be carefully assessed and may need to be revisited in view of the potential unintended consequences on banks’ asset quality, maturity structure, prudential buffers and the inflation target. Continued strengthening of banks’ capital buffers would enhance banking sector resilience.  “Structural reforms, particularly on governance and corruption and in implementing the much-delayed power sector recovery plan, remain essential to boosting prospects for higher and more inclusive growth.”  “The team held productive discussions with senior government and central bank officials. It also met with representatives of the banking system, the private sector, and international development partners. The team wishes to thank the authorities and all those it met for the productive discussions, excellent cooperation, and warm hospitality." And yet Nigeria conducts illegal refoulement, and more. We'll have more on this.

On September 26 Spokesperson Gerry Rice, now for new Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, on Turkey said "this is also from Matthew, he has asked ' On Turkey, what is the IMF's response to ruling AKP deputy chair Numan Kurtulmuş criticizing a meeting between IMF & opposition parties, saying Turkey has "closed the topic with the IMF."'

  Then Rice said it is normal to meet with opposition - except in Cameroon, apparently - and that there has been no indication from the Turkish authorities they are looking for a program.

 On September 24 on Sri Lanka the IMF cited the Easter terror attacks but remained silent on the suspected war criminal put atop the country's army, Shavendra Silva which Inner City Press has been asking the UN system about since February: "A staff team from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) led by Manuela Goretti visited Colombo during September 10-25, 2019 to conduct the sixth review under Sri Lanka’s economic reform program supported by a four-year Extended Fund Facility (EFF) arrangement. At the end of the visit, Ms. Goretti made the following statement: “The team reached understandings at the staff level with the Sri Lankan authorities on the sixth review of the EFF-supported program. The authorities are taking steps to complete all the pending actions and structural benchmarks for this review over the next few weeks. “The team welcomed the authorities’ efforts to normalize the security situation in the country after the tragic terrorist attacks in April and mitigate the impact of the shock on the economy. Real GDP growth was revised to 2.7 percent in 2019 and is projected to improve to 3.5 percent in 2020, as tourist arrivals and related activities gradually recover. Inflation is expected to remain stable at around 4.5 percent during 2019-20. Despite the recent fall in tourist arrivals and remittances, the current account balance is projected to improve to 2.6 percent of GDP in 2019 on the back of lower imports and stronger exports supported by the exchange rate correction in late 2018.  “Sustaining prudent policies and implementing institutional reforms remain critical to preserve macroeconomic stability, given the weak global outlook and Sri Lanka’s sizable public debt. “The protracted impact of the 2018 political crisis and the Easter attacks are significantly impacting fiscal performance. The end-June fiscal target was missed by a large margin, due to frontloading of spending from the clearing of arrears and externally-financed capital projects carried over from 2018 as well as a sharp fall in indirect revenues following the terrorist attacks. While the program targets agreed at the time of the fifth review are no longer within reach, the authorities are committed to achieve a primary fiscal surplus of 0.2 percent of GDP in 2019, through implementation of remaining revenue measures in the 2019 budget and prudent expenditure management. “The mission welcomed the authorities’ commitment to advance revenue-based fiscal consolidation in 2020 and over the medium term to preserve the gains achieved under the program, put the high public debt on a downward path, and provide space for better-targeted social and capital spending. Sustained efforts are needed to mobilize revenues, by broadening the tax base and enforcing compliance, and strengthen spending efficiency. To anchor public debt sustainability, the mission welcomed the authorities’ plans to revamp fiscal rules and establish an independent public debt management agency over the medium term, in line with international best practice. Improving the financial performance of SriLankan Airlines and advancing energy sector reforms, including by tackling cost inefficiencies and subsidies in the electricity sector, remain critical steps to reduce fiscal risks. “The mission supported the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL)’s prudent and data-dependent monetary policy approach and their renewed commitment to strengthen reserve buffers in line with program understandings. The CBSL should continue to allow for exchange rate flexibility and limit FX intervention to smooth excess volatility, in the event pressures from tighter global financial conditions were to intensify. The new Central Bank Act will be a landmark reform in the roadmap towards flexible inflation targeting by strengthening the CBSL’s mandate, governance, accountability, and transparency, in line with international best practice. “The CBSL adopted temporary measures to support the tourism sector and ease credit conditions in the aftermath of the terrorist attacks, including a debt service moratorium and caps on bank interest rates. These exceptional measures should be lifted as soon as credit conditions stabilize to avoid distortions to the financial system, amid weaker credit quality and falling profitability. The mission welcomed the ongoing efforts to strengthen the regulatory and supervisory regime for banks and non-bank financial institutions.... The team met with Prime Minister Wickremesinghe, Minister of Finance Samaraweera, State Minister of Finance Wickramaratne, Governor of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka Coomaraswamy, Secretary to the Treasury Samaratunga, Senior Deputy Governor Weerasinghe, other public officials, representatives of the Parliamentary Opposition, business community, civil society, and international partners."

  On September 12 Inner City Press asked the IMF: "On Zimbabwe, please confirm or deny IMF's Patrick Imam saying that "it is clear, compared to the projections of the original SMP, which did not foresee the severity of the drought and its secondary impact, nor the electricity shock, that growth is almost certainly going to be revised downwards and inflation upwards compared to the original SMP forecasts." And what is the IMF's view of the (economic) impact of the crack down on protest and human rights defenders?"

  Spokesperson Gerry Rice said that the IMF team is in Harare, from September 5 to 17. On human rights, he said the IMF "focuses on economics" and that such questions should be directed to... bilateral creditor. At least he didn't say the UN, which doesn't care. Here are Inner City Press' other questions to the IMF:

On Somalia, please provide a read out or response to reports that Somali Minister of Finance Abdirahman Duale Beyle met officials from the IMF  Addis Ababa to discuss the fourth phase of the Somali pardon program.

On Sri Lanka, what is the IMF's response to Independent Expert on foreign debt and human rights, Juan Pablo Bohoslavsky, sayins that in Sri Lanka, there are concerns at the significant rise in the value added tax, given that the brunt of such taxes is often borne by the poorest?

More generally, what is the IMF's response to Bohoslavsky saying as to the IMF that "even though austerity can be a useful tool of administration against the squandering of resources, it is essential to keep in mind that austerity impacts the most vulnerable and marginalised"?

On crypto-currency what is the IMF's response to Marshall Islands Minister David Paul saying the country is moving forward with its plans. According to the post, Minister Paul will provide further details about the Marshall Islands’ crypto, the Sovereign, next week at the Invest: Asia 2019 conference?  Within months, the IMF began putting pressure on the Marshall Islands to not forego the U.S. dollar in favor of its own digital currency. The Fund issued a 58-page report in September 2018 and warned against the "potential costs arising from economic, reputational, AML/CFT, and governance risks" associated with the issuance of the Sovereign.

On the DR Congo, what is the IMF's knowledge of, and comment on, that all the big-name advisory banks are laying siege to the presidential palace in the hope of winning the contract to advise the DRC on its relations with the IMF?" Inner City Press also asked, again, for "any updates on Cameroon or Haiti or Yemen." Watch this site.

More here.

***

Feedback: Editorial [at] innercitypress.com

UN Office: S-303, UN, NY 10017 USA

Reporter's mobile (and weekends): 718-716-3540

Search innercitypress.com  Search WWW (censored?)

Other, earlier Inner City Press are listed here, and some are available in the ProQuest service, and now on Lexis-Nexis.

 Copyright 2006-2019 Inner City Press, Inc. To request reprint or other permission, e-contact Editorial [at] innercitypress.com for