By
Matthew
Russell Lee
UNITED
NATIONS,
November 12 --
When the UN's
Special
Coordinator
for Lebanon
Derek Plumbly
came to take
questions outside
the UN
Security
Council on
November 12,
he lavished
praise on
Saudi Arabia's
financial
contribution
to the Army.
He said on a
range of
topics, it is
not my
decision to
make, it is
for the people
of Lebanon.
Inner City
Press asked
Plumbly about
the following
headline,
"Plumbly Rules
Out
Naturalization
of Syrian
Refugees." If
such decisions
are truly for
the people of
Lebanon, is it
for Plumbly to
rule anything
out, or in?
Rather than
clarify the
headline, Plumbly
said yes, that
is his
position. He
said it's a
matter for the
people of
Lebanon, and
the UN High
Commissioner
for Refugees.
But while he's
free to note
that Lebanon
and some
others have
not wanted to
sign the 1951
Refugees
Convention,
should Plumbly
so openly say
it's fine not
to sign it?
Appearing with
Plumbly, at
least at the
beginning of
his question
and answer stakeout,
was Australian
Ambassador
Gary Quinlan,
president of
the Security Council
for November.
While there
were
consultation
in the morning
on Liberia, no
questions were
taken on that
topic. (In
fairness,
Quinlan has
made an effort
to take
questions
after nearly
all other
consultations,
so we'll see.)
Inner City
Press also
asked Plumbly
about the
withdrawal
from UNIFIL of
Belgium's 100
plus
peacekeepers.
He said they
were in
de-mining, and
rotations are
routine. But
who's coming
in?
Back
on July 31, in
the
International
Monetary
Fund's then
just released
Lebanon report
the word Syria
appeared no
less than 59
times, blamed
for nearly
everything.
But the report
at page 6
acknowledges:
“Lebanon
could
not create
sufficient
jobs even
before the
Syria crisis.
According to
the World
Bank, only
some 3,800
jobs were
generated per
year (one for
every six new
entrants to
the labor
market) in
2005–09.
Reflecting
insufficient
job
opportunities,
the
unemployment
rate stood at
11 percent in
2011, slightly
above the MENA
average of 10
percent. Like
in the MENA
region,
unemployment
was much
higher among
the youth --
over one third
of labor force
participants
aged 15 - 24
are
unemployed.
Around half of
the labor
force was
employed in
the informal
sector.”
The
IMF opined,
“Without a
resolution in
Syria,
economic
performance is
expected to
remain weak.”
But what kind
of resolution?
As
good news, the
IMF said
“Lebanon
might
become a
commodity
producer over
the next
decade, with
petroleum set
to be an
important
source of
government
revenue.
Recent seismic
surveys
suggest that
Lebanon’s oil
and gas
resources
could be in
excess of 25
trillion cubic
feet (tcf).
While not
particularly
large by
international
standards,
this estimate
still points
to the
potential for
a substantial
revenue
increase for
many years
(though not
starting
before 2020 at
the
earliest).”
For
now, on
delinquent
loans held by
Lebanese
banks, the IMF
“staff called
for an
improvement of
loan
classification
and
restructuring
rules. The
increase in
loans under
watch and the
widespread use
of overdrafts
warrant
tighter rules
guiding the
classification
of NPLs and
the
restructuring
of loans,
including
re-aging of
overdrafts and
arrears”
(Yesterday
Inner City
Press reported
on Cyprus
non-performing
loans and the
foreclosure
scheme the IMF
is demanding,
here.)
Also
on Lebanese
banks, the IMF
“encouraged
progress on
the Anti-Money
Laundering and
Combating the
Financing of
Terrorism
(AML/CFT)
regime. A
better
understanding
of the source
of deposits
and adequate
identification
of beneficial
owners would
allow more
effective
monitoring of
transactions
and
strengthening
of risk-based
supervision—necessary
to enhance the
integrity of
the financial
sector.”
The
IMF report
contains as an
annex a
“Statement by
Mr. Shaalan on
behalf of the
Lebanese
authorities”
-- of whom
while there
the IMF met
with Prime
Minister
Salam,
Minister of
Finance
Khalil,
Governor of
the Banque du
Liban (BdL)
Salame -- the
IMF met with
that says
“Lebanon’s
AML/CFT regime
is in practice
fully
compliant with
international
standards, and
Lebanon’s
financial
intelligence
unit, the
Special
Investigation
Commission,
actively
cooperates
with its
foreign
counterparts.”
We'll see.
Watch this
site.
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